Chuck Missler:

Timing:

Season:

Could not have been after October because:

the shepherds were out and it would have been too cold -- click here to expand research section
Luke 2:8 - HCSB
The Shepherds and the Angels

⁸ In the same region, shepherds were staying out in the fields and keeping watch at night over their flock.
Google Search: what were the average daily temperatures in israel in october in the first century
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note: i merged the October and November search because they were very similar

While exact daily thermometer records do not exist for the first century, paleo-climate reconstructions and the stable Mediterranean climate patterns of the era indicate that October average daily highs in the region ranged from 71°F to 84°F (22°C to 29°C) and lows from 56°F to 67°F (13°C to 19°C), depending heavily on elevation and geography. [1, 2]

Regional Variations
- The Coastal Plain (e.g., Tel Aviv): Warmer and more humid, with daytime highs averaging around 78°F–83°F (25°C–28°C) and night lows near 63°F (17°C). [1, 2]
- The Mountain Regions (e.g., Jerusalem): Cooler due to altitude, featuring daytime averages around 71°F–76°F (21°C–25°C) and refreshing evening drops to about 56°F–59°F (13°C–15°C). [1, 2]
- The Jordan Valley & Dead Sea: Significantly hotter and arid, with ambient temperatures remaining high and warm local water bodies. [1]
Estimated November Averages by Region
- Coastal Plain (e.g., Tel Aviv): Daytime highs averaged around 71°F–74°F (21°C–24°C) with lows near 55°F–58°F (13°C–14°C).
- Hill Country (e.g., Jerusalem): Cooler due to elevation, with daytime highs around 62°F–66°F (16°C–19°C) and lows dropping to 48°F–51°F (9°C–11°C).
- Jordan Valley / Dead Sea: Significantly warmer microclimate, remaining mild to hot compared to the mountains.
- Southern Desert (e.g., Eilat): Warm conditions with daytime highs approaching 76°F–81°F (24°C–27°C). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Seasonal Context

During the first century (falling within the broader Roman Warm Period), October marked the crucial seasonal transition out of the long, dry summer. Known textually and agriculturally as the arrival of the "early" or "former" rains (Yoreh), mid-October typically brought the first intermittent showers to soften the sun-baked soil for autumn plowing and the completion of the olive and date harvest. [1 , 2 , 3 , 4]
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In the first century AD, average daily temperatures in Israel during December generally ranged from 43°F to 59°F (6°C to 15°C), varying by region. [1, 2, 3]

Regional Temperature Variations
- Highland areas (such as Jerusalem and Bethlehem): Daily highs averaged around 54°F to 57°F (12°C to 14°C), while nighttime lows dropped to about 42°F to 47°F (6°C to 8°C).
- Coastal areas (such as Tel Aviv): Temperatures were milder, with daytime highs near 64°F (18°C) and night lows around 51°F (10°C).
- Southern desert regions (such as Eilat): Remained the warmest, with daytime highs reaching up to 70°F (21°C) and lows near 50°F (10°C). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Climate Context
- The Roman Warm Period: The first century fell right into a broader regional climate optimum known as the Roman Warm Period, meaning Mediterranean temperatures were stable and slightly elevated compared to later centuries. [1, 2]
- The Rainy Season: December was firmly within the Levant's winter rainy season, bringing cooler winds and precipitation inland, though hard freezes or snow remained rare outside of high peaks like Mount Hermon. [1 , 2 , 3]>
Rome would not have mandated everyone travel to the town of their lineage during a time that Israel was impassible. -- click here to expand research section
Matthew 24:20 - HCSB
The Shepherds and the Angels

²⁰Pray that your escape may not be in winter or on a Sabbath.
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The Roman Empire traditionally conducted civic censuses for Roman citizens roughly every 14-year cycle in places like Egypt or every four to five years in Rome itself, though Augustus reorganized imperial assessments during his reign. [1 , 2 , 3 ]

Structure and Purpose
- Key Purpose: The census determined tax liability, military service, property registration, and civic rank.
- The Process: Heads of households (paterfamilias) were required to declare household members, ages, and property values.
- Local Registrations: In provinces like Egypt and Judea, individuals reported to their legal or fiscal domiciles or ancestral origins for registration. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Notable First-Century Censuses
- Under Caesar Augustus: Augustus ordered sweeping imperial assessments and famously recorded citizen tallies (such as 4,937,000 citizens in 14 CE). [1, 2]
- The Census of Quirinius (6 CE): Conducted by Publius Sulpicius Quirinius upon the formation of the Roman province of Judaea, which triggered a notable revolt led by Judas of Galilee. [1]
As noted by Office for National Statistics, “The Romans conducted censuses every five years. The census was a crucial part of the administration of the Roman Empire.”
Google Search: were the roads in much of israel impassible due to climate in first century during the month of December
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No, the roads in much of Israel were not completely impassable during the month of December in the first century. While December marks the core winter season and brings significant rain, travel remained highly viable across major networks. However, weather conditions did create localized, temporary disruptions, particularly for wheeled transport and desert travel. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Travel and Infrastructure Realities
- Paved Imperial Highways: By the first century, the Roman Empire maintained robust, stone-paved super-highways across the region. Primary routes like the Via Maris (along the coast), the King's Highway (east of the Jordan River), and the Galilee-to-Damascus highway were designed to withstand heavy rains and facilitate military and trade transport year-round. [1, 2, 3]
- The Judean Ridgeway: Major local thoroughfares, such as the ancient path running along the top of the central mountain ridge (connecting Be'er Sheva, Hebron, Bethlehem, Jerusalem, and Shechem), naturally avoided low-lying flood zones and remained open to foot and animal traffic. [1, 2]
Climatic Impacts and Disruption Types
While the main stone arteries remained open, regional travel faced specific winter hazards:
- Muddy Dirt Paths: In the winter, “due to rain, some parts of that region were impassible in wintertime to anything with wheels. Mud would make travel with wheeled transport miserable in some places and impossible in others.” -- [Lorehaven]. Off the paved Roman routes, regional paths were primarily dirt and became highly slick and bogged down. [1]
- Desert Flash Floods: In southern areas like the Negev and the Judean Desert, dry riverbeds (wadis) that were commonly used as natural highways during the dry season became lethal and entirely unusable due to unexpected, sudden flash flooding from winter downpours. [1, 2]
- High-Elevation Chills: Mountainous regions like Jerusalem, Bethlehem, and Upper Galilee routinely dropped to temperatures between 40°F and 55°F (5°C to 13°C) in December, occasionally seeing rare sleet or brief snow that made unpaved, steep inclines dangerous to navigate on foot. [1, 2, 3, 4]
If you are researching this for a historical context, please let me know if you want to explore first-century travel speeds, Roman military routes, or how ancient travelers prepared for winter journeys.

Year:

John the Baptist's father, Zechariah, was a levitical priest of the course of Abijah (Luke 1:5, 8-13, 23-24), this calculates to a 2 BC birth year -- click here to expand research section
- Zechariah and his wife were both from the Aaronic lineage, he was selected by lot to burn incense
  Luke 1:5, 8-13, 23-24 - HCSB
  ⁵ In the days of King Herod of Judea, there was a priest of Abijah’s division[a] named Zechariah. His wife was from the daughters of Aaron, and her name was Elizabeth.
  
  ...
  
  ⁸ When his division was on duty and he was serving as priest before God, ⁹ it happened that he was chosen by lot, according to the custom of the priesthood, to enter the sanctuary of the Lord and burn incense. ¹⁰ At the hour of incense the whole assembly of the people was praying outside. ¹¹ An angel of the Lord appeared to him, standing to the right of the altar of incense. ¹² When Zechariah saw him, he was startled and overcome with fear.[a] ¹³ But the angel said to him:
  
  Do not be afraid, Zechariah,
  because your prayer has been heard.
  Your wife Elizabeth will bear you a son,
  and you will name him John.
  
  ...
  
  ²³ When the days of his ministry were completed, he went back home. ²⁴ After these days his wife Elizabeth conceived and kept herself in seclusion for five months. She said,
- the priests were divided into 24 courses, each one in the temple for one week from sabbath to sabbath. The Course of Abijah was the 8th course - 1 Chr 24:7-19
  1 Chronicles 24:7-19 - HCSB
  ⁷ The first lot fell to Jehoiarib, the second to Jedaiah,
  ⁸ the third to Harim, the fourth to Seorim,
  ⁹ the fifth to Malchijah, the sixth to Mijamin,
  ¹⁰ the seventh to Hakkoz, the eighth to Abijah,
  ¹¹ the ninth to Jeshua, the tenth to Shecaniah,
  ¹² the eleventh to Eliashib, the twelfth to Jakim,
  ¹³ the thirteenth to Huppah, the fourteenth to Jeshebeab,
  ¹⁴ the fifteenth to Bilgah, the sixteenth to Immer,
  ¹⁵ the seventeenth to Hezir, the eighteenth to Happizzez,
  ¹⁶ the nineteenth to Pethahiah, the twentieth to Jehezkel,
  ¹⁷ the twenty-first to Jachin, the twenty-second to Gamul,
  ¹⁸ the twenty-third to Delaiah, and the twenty-fourth to Maaziah.
  
  ¹⁹ These had their assigned duties for service when they entered the Lord’s temple, according to their regulations, which they received from their ancestor Aaron, as the Lord God of Israel had commanded him.
- The temple was destroyed by Titus on Aug 5, 70 AD, the first course of priests had just taken office (Talmud & Josephus)
- tracking backwards: Zacharias would have ended his duties July 13, 3 BC
- John the baptist was born 9 months later (280 days appx), which would be April 19-20, 2 BC, which would have been on passover
- so then when he was 30 it would have been April 19-20 in 29 AD, in the 15th year of Tiberius which matches Luke 3:1
- the minimum age for ministry was 30 (Num 4:3)
- since john was 5 months older, this also confirms an autumn date for Jesus
- Elizabeth hid herself for 5 months, the angel gabriel announced to mary, and mary went to Elisabeth in the 1st week of her 6th month, or the 4th week of december 3 BC (luke 1:36)
- if jesus was born 280 days later, it would be Sept 29, 2 BC (feast of Trumpets)
irenaeus notes that the lord was born in the 41st year in the reign of augustus. -- click here to expand research section
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Saint Irenaeus states in his second-century theological work Against Heresies (Book 3, chapter 21, section 3) that “our Lord was born about the forty-first year of the reign of Augustus.” -- [BYU Studies].

Context and Calculation of the Date
- The Source: Irenaeus of Lyons wrote this around 180 AD while defending orthodox Christian teachings against Gnostic groups. [1, 2, 3]
- The Chronology: Scholars note that calculating the "41st year" depends on when Augustus’s reign is considered to begin. Counting from Julius Caesar's adoption of Octavian in 44 BC or his initial consulship in 43 BC places Irenaeus’s estimated birth year for Jesus at roughly 3 or 4 BC. [1, 2]
- The Word "About": Irenaeus used the Latin word circa (about), indicating he offered a general approximation rather than an exact mathematical calculation. [1]

Tertullian said that Augustus began to rule 41 years before the birth of Jesus and died 15 years after. He also states Jesus was born 28 years after the death of Cleopatra in 30 BC, which also aligns with a date of 2 BC (Tert. adv. Judaeos c.8) -- click here to expand research section

Augustus died Aug 19, 14 AD, which places Jesus' birth in the year 2 BC.

Google Search: Tertullian said that Augustus began to rule 41 years before the birth of Jesus and died 15 years after. (Tert. adv. Judaeos c.8)

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Your quote from Adversus Judaeos (Chapter 8) accurately reflects early Christian chronological calculations. Early theologian Tertullian used these metrics to deduce that Jesus was born in 2 BCE or 3 BCE, aligning the event with specific benchmarks in the reign of Roman Emperor Augustus. [1, 2]
The Specific Chronological Argument
In An Answer to the Jews (Adversus Judaeos), Chapter 8, Tertullian traces historical successions to map out the prophecy of the 70 weeks from the Book of Daniel. [1, 2]
He synchronizes the birth of Jesus with the Roman Empire using the following data points:
The 41st Year of Augustus: Tertullian tracks the official start of Augustus's total rule from the Battle of Actium (31 BCE). Counting 41 years forward brings his timeline to roughly 2 BCE or 3 BCE. [1, 2]
28 Years After Cleopatra's Death: Cleopatra died in 30 BCE. Tertullian states that “in the forty-first year of the empire of Augustus, when he has been reigning for xx and viii years after the death of Cleopatra, the Christ is born.” -- [New Advent].

15 Years of Survival: Historical records confirm Augustus died in August of 14 CE. Tertullian notes that “the same Augustus survived, after Christ is born, xv years” -- [New Advent]. Subtracting 15 years from 14 CE places the birth of Jesus around 2 BCE. [1, 2]
Contextual Comparison

Metric Historical Standard Tertullian's Calculation Deduced Birth Year
Augustus's Actium Rule Began 31 BCE 41st year of reign ~2–3 BCE
Years After Cleopatra Died 30 BCE 28 years after death ~2 BCE
Augustus's Death Died 14 CE 15 years after birth ~2 BCE

Why This Matters
Tertullian engineered this precise timeline to counter Jewish contemporary arguments that the Messiah had not yet appeared. By proving that the timeline perfectly intersected with the Roman Empire and the subsequent destruction of Jerusalem in 70 CE, he argued that biblical prophecies had already been structurally fulfilled. [1, 2, 3]
Are you looking to cross-reference Tertullian's dates with other early church fathers (like Clement of Alexandria or Eusebius), or would you like to explore how his timeline compares to modern historical consensus regarding the birth of Jesus?

Eusebius, "the Father of Church History", says Jesus was born in the 42nd year of the reign of Augustus and the 28th from the subjection of Egypt on the death of Anthony and Cleopatra (Eccle. His. i.5). These all point to Autumn of 2 BC. -- click here to expand research section
Eusebius, "the Father of Church History", says Jesus was born in the 42nd year of the reign of Augustus and the 28th from the subjection of Egypt on the death of Anthony and Cleopatra (Eccle. His. i.5)
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Yes, Eusebius of Caesarea explicitly states this chronology in his Church History, Book 1, Chapter 5. [1, 2]

As recorded in Church History, “It was in the forty-second year of the reign of Augustus and the twenty-eighth after the subjugation of Egypt and the death of Antony and Cleopatra... that our Saviour and Lord Jesus Christ was born.”

This calculation equates to roughly 2 B.C. in the modern calendar, aligning with chronological efforts by early Christian writers to anchor the incarnation of Jesus within established Roman imperial history. [1]

If you'd like, I can:

Detail how Eusebius and other early historians coordinated Roman census records with Jewish history
Discuss how this 2 B.C. date compares with modern scholarly estimates (such as 6–4 B.C.)
Extension of Search: Detail how Eusebius and other early historians coordinated Roman census records with Jewish history
Eusebius of Caesarea and other early Christian historians coordinated Roman imperial records with Jewish history by developing a pioneering comparative chronological timeline layout. Faced with the challenge of reconciling the Gospel of Luke's Nativity census with the historical accounts of the Jewish historian Josephus, early scholars relied on specialized methodologies to harmonize these traditions.

1. Eusebius’s Invention of the Tabular Timeline
Eusebius revolutionized historical scholarship by creating a tabular, multi-column system in his work, the Chronicon.

The Structural Setup: Rather than writing a standard narrative, he arranged parallel vertical columns tracking separate ancient civilizations—including the Roman Empire, the Jewish high priesthood, the Egyptian Ptolemies, and the Herodian dynasty.

The Coordination Point: By placing these columns side by side, Eusebius's Chronicle made it possible "to fix a whole world on paper" by aligning data from various strands of biblical and Near Eastern historiography. This visual anchor allowed him to cross-reference the 42nd year of Augustus directly against the end of Herod the Great’s reign and the high priestly successions in Jerusalem.

2. Resolving the Quirinius Census Dilemma

Early historians had to address a significant chronological overlap: Luke 2 states Jesus was born during a census when Quirinius governed Syria, yet Josephus firmly dates Quirinius's taxation census to 6 A.D.—roughly a decade after the traditional death date of Herod the Great (4 B.C.). To harmonize Roman administrative history with Jewish history, early writers used specific textual and archival arguments:

Distinguishing Two Enrollment Phases: Historians like Luke himself (who references the “first” census in Luke 2:2) and later commentators argued that Augustus's decree was an overarching imperial initiative that took years to execute. They coordinated this with Augustus’s personal record, the Res Gestae, which notes multiple empire-wide census orders.

The Oath of Allegiance Context: Early writers linked the Nativity registration to a specific event recorded by Josephus: an empire-wide oath of allegiance to Augustus taken near the end of Herod's reign. The 5th-century theologian and historian Orosius refers to an Augustan census in which allegiance to the emperor was sworn... Josephus refers to a similar census of the Jews (possibly occurring a year before Herod's death), which 6,000 Pharisees abstained from.
Alternative Grammar Fixes: Later patristic traditions noted that the Greek text of Luke 2:2 could be translated as the census occurring “before” Quirinius was governor, explicitly distinguishing the Nativity registration from the infamous tax census of 6 A.D. that sparked Judas the Galilean’s revolt.

3. Verification via Lost Roman Archives

Early Christian apologists frequently pointed skeptics directly toward official Roman state records to prove the coordination between Jewish geography and Roman census results.

Justin Martyr (c. 100–165 A.D.): Writing directly to the Roman Emperor Antoninus Pius, Justin argued that Jesus's birth in Bethlehem could be independently verified by checking the imperial registration lists. He stated that Jesus was born under Quirinius and told the Romans they could verify this fact “from the registers of the taxing.”

Tertullian (c. 155–220 A.D.): In his polemical writings, Tertullian explicitly noted that the Roman census records from Judea were kept in the imperial archives. He asserted that these census records were compiled under Sentius Saturninus (the governor of Syria from 9–7 B.C.), providing an archival baseline that early church historians used to anchor the gospel accounts within verified Roman provincial administration.
If you want to look into this further, I can:

Show the exact tabular layout Eusebius used in his Chronicon columns Explain the astronomical evidence (like lunar eclipses) used to date Herod’s death Detail Tertullian's specific claims regarding Sentius Saturninus
Extension of Search: Show the exact tabular layout Eusebius used in his Chronicon columns
To display the chronological data of the ancient world simultaneously, Eusebius of Caesarea abandoned the traditional scroll format and pioneered a dual-page tabular spreadsheet layout using the codex (modern book format).
He divided every two-page "opening" of his manuscript into parallel, vertical columns tracking regnal years. Historical events were carefully slotted across a single horizontal baseline, forcing a permanent visual synchronization across separate civilizations.
The visual framework of an individual two-page opening in Book 2 of the Chronicon (The Chronological Canons) followed the structure detailed below:
The Macro Layout (Two-Page Opening)
[=============================== LEFT-HAND PAGE ===============================][============================== RIGHT-HAND PAGE ==============================] | Col. 1 | Col. 2 | Col. 3 | Col. 4 | Col. 5 | Col. 6 | Col. 7 | Col. 8 | | Index | Kings of the | Kings of the | HISTORICAL NARRATIVE | HISTORICAL NARRATIVE | Kings of the | Macedon | Olympiad| | of Years | Assyrians | Hebrews | (Central Text Box) | (Central Text Box) | Egyptians | Empire | Numbers | |----------|----------------|---------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------|----------------|-----------|----------| | 1220 | Year 14 | Year 22 | The temple in Jerusalem | King David reigns in | Year 4 | (Column | | | 1221 | Year 15 | Year 23 | is established... | Israel... | Year 5 | not yet | | | 1222 | Year 16 | Year 24 | | | Year 6 | active) | |
4 Structural Mechanics of the Eusebian Table

Dynamic Columns: Columns appeared and vanished dynamically based on geopolitics. When a nation was conquered, its column stopped. When a new empire emerged, an extra column was drawn. [1, 2]

The Chronological Anchor (Extreme Left): The leftmost column acted as the primary timeline engine, tracking absolute chronological milestones such as the Years since Abraham or the Annus Mundi (Years since Creation).

The Centerpiece Narrative Split: The middle of the two-page spread was reserved for major text notes. Short sentences recording battles, natural disasters, or births were penned here, stretching across the center gutter.
Horizontal Synchronism Lines: Scribes drew explicit horizontal grid lines. If a historic event sat on a specific line, the reader could look horizontally to the left or right to see exactly which year of reign that event corresponded to across every active nation on earth.

If you want to explore the preservation of this system, I can:
Explain how St. Jerome color-coded these columns in his Latin translation
Detail how medieval scribes accidentally ruined the layout and how scholars reconstructed it
Google Search:when did the subjugation of egypt into the roman empire occur
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The subjugation of Egypt into the Roman Empire occurred in 30 BCE, following the defeat of Mark Antony and Queen Cleopatra VII and their subsequent deaths. [1, 2]
Key Events of the Annexation
Battle of Actium (31 BCE): After the commander Octavian (August) defeated Antony and Queen Cleopatra VII in 31 BC. in the Battle of Actium, Egypt lost its independence and its fate was sealed. [1]
Arrival of Octavian (30 BCE): Rome's official rule began when Octavian (later named Emperor Augustus) arrived in Alexandria in 30 BCE. [1]
End of the Ptolemaic Dynasty: Following the suicides of Cleopatra and Antony, Egypt became a Roman province in 30 BC under Octavian (later Emperor Augustus) after the suicide of Egypt's last Pharaoh Cleopatra VII. [1]
Imperial Estate: Augustus dismantled the old monarchy and annexed Egypt not as a standard senatorial province, but as his own personal royal estate due to its vital grain supply. [1, 2]
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Yes, Augustus had several different names and titles throughout his life as he was adopted and rose to power. [1, 2]

Name Changes During His Life

Gaius Octavius: His birth name given at birth in 63 BC. He is often called Octavius during his childhood. [1, 2, 3]

Gaius Julius Caesar: His name after he was adopted by his great-uncle, Julius Caesar, in 44 BC. [1, 2]

Gaius Julius Caesar Octavianus (Octavian): The name historians use for him during his rise to power (44–27 BC). Romans added an "-anus" suffix to their birth family name upon adoption to show their original lineage. [1, 2]

Imperator Caesar Augustus: The honorific title and name granted to him by the Roman Senate in 27 BC. “Augustus” means the revered, majestic, or exalted one. [1, 2, 3, 4]

As noted by HISTORY, “Augustus was not his birth name.”
If you'd like, I can also explain:
Roman naming conventions and what praenomen, nomen, and cognomen mean

How "Caesar" and "Augustus" turned from personal names into imperial titles for later emperors
Augustus began his reign in 43 BC, so 41 years into the reign of augustus is 2 BC -- click here to expand research section
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Augustus officially came to power on January 16, 207 BC, when the Roman Senate granted him the title "Augustus," though his rise began after Julius Caesar's assassination in 44 BC . [1, 2, 3]

Key Milestones in His Rise

44 BC: Julius Caesar was murdered. Octavian (later Augustus) learned he was named Caesar's principal heir and adopted son.
43 BC: Octavian joined the Second Triumvirate political alliance with Mark Antony and Marcus Lepidus.

31 BC: Octavian defeated Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium, leaving him in sole control of the Roman world.
27 BC: The Senate officially named him Augustus, marking the formal start of the Roman Empire and his 40-year reign. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
If you'd like, I can share more about:
His relationship with Julius Caesar
How the Second Triumvirate fell apart

The reforms of the Pax Romana

Metric	Historical Standard	Tertullian's Calculation	Deduced Birth Year
Augustus's Actium Rule	Began 31 BCE	41st year of reign	~2–3 BCE
Years After Cleopatra	Died 30 BCE	28 years after death	~2 BCE
Augustus's Death	Died 14 CE	15 years after birth	~2 BCE

Herod's Death

Josephus recorded an eclipse prior to the death of King Herod. -- click here to expand research section
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some say this lunar ecplise was on March 13, 4 B.C, but others say it was on Dec 29 1 BC.

AI Overview
Josephus recorded a lunar eclipse prior to the death of King Herod in his work Antiquities of the Jews (Book 17, Chapter 6, Section 4).
As noted by the Biblical Archaeology Society, “This date is based on Josephus's remark in Antiquities 17.6. 4 that there was a lunar eclipse shortly before Herod died.”
Details of the Record

Text Location: Antiquities of the Jews, 17.6.4 (17.167).

Context: Josephus writes about a lunar eclipse occurring on the same night that Herod executed certain Jewish scholars and protesters who tore down a golden eagle from the Temple gate.

Traditional Date: Historians commonly match this description to the partial lunar eclipse of March 13, 4 B.C., which places Herod's death shortly before Passover in that same year. Other scholars propose alternative dates, such as eclipses in 5 B.C. or 1 B.C., based on calculations of visibility and subsequent historical timelines.

If you would like, I can share more details about the debate over Herod's death year or how this eclipse helps estimate the birth year of Jesus.

The Magillath Ta-anith, an ancient Jewish scroll from the Time of Jesus called the Scroll of Fasts, which indicates days that pepple are not allowed to fast (mourn) , says that Herod died January 14, 1 BC. -- click here to expand research section

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the document says the 7th of Kislev was thought to be the death of Herod and therefore a holiday.

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The direct answer is that Megillat Taanit (the correct historical name for what is phonetically spelled as "maggillath a-smith" or the Scroll of Fasting) explicitly records the anniversary of Herod the Great's death as Shevat 2. [1, 2]
The text notes that because Herod was an oppressive tyrant, the Jewish community celebrated his passing, making Shevat 2 a festive day on which public mourning and fasting were strictly forbidden. [1, 2]
Chronological Details in the Scroll

The Specific Date: The ancient calendar sets the anniversary of his demise on the 2nd day of the Hebrew month of Shevat (typically falling in mid-to-late January or early February). [1, 2]
The Scholion (Commentary): While the oldest core text of the scroll lists the date as a day of joy without detailing why, the early rabbinic commentary attached to it (the Scholion) clarifies that it directly commemorates the death of King Herod. [1]
Historical Context: According to historical accounts recorded by Josephus, Herod knew the Jewish people would rejoice at his death. He went so far as to command that prominent Jewish leaders be imprisoned and slaughtered the moment he died just to guarantee nationwide weeping. Fortunately, his family ignored the order and released the prisoners, solidifying Shevat 2 as a day of pure celebration. [1, 2]

Academic Debates on the Year
While Megillat Taanit gives us the specific calendar day (Shevat 2), modern historians and astronomers use it alongside external sources to debate the exact year of his death: [1, 2]

Proposed Year Supporting Evidence Academic Status

4 BCE Aligns with historical notes from Emil Schürer regarding a lunar eclipse preceding Passover. Majority view among modern secular historians.
1 BCE / 1 CE Corresponds perfectly to an eclipse on December 29 (1 BCE), placing Shevat 2 exactly 16 days later on January 14, 1 CE. Minority view favored by specific chronological researchers.
If you are researching this for a historical or theological project, let me know:

If you want to compare this date to the timelines found in the New Testament Gospels
If you are looking for astronomical calculations regarding the lunar eclipses mentioned around his death [1, 2]

Considerable time passed since Jesus' birth and Herod's death. So Jesus' birth could have been a few years before Herod's death. -- click here to expand research section
- After Jesus was born, he was circumcised on the 8th day and purification was on the 40th day.
  Luke 2:21-24 - HCSB
  The Circumcision and Presentation of Jesus
  
  ²¹ When the eight days were completed for His circumcision, He was named Jesus—the name given by the angel before He was conceived.[a] ²² And when the days of their purification according to the law of Moses were finished, they brought Him up to Jerusalem to present Him to the Lord ²³ (just as it is written in the law of the Lord: Every firstborn male[b] will be dedicated[c] to the Lord[d]) ²⁴ and to offer a sacrifice (according to what is stated in the law of the Lord: a pair of turtledoves or two young pigeons[e]).
  
  Leviticus 12 - HCSB
  Purification after Childbirth
  
  ¹ The Lord spoke to Moses: ² “Tell the Israelites: When a woman becomes pregnant and gives birth to a male child, she will be unclean seven days, as she is during the days of her menstrual impurity. ³ The flesh of his foreskin must be circumcised on the eighth day. ⁴ She will continue in purification from her bleeding for 33 days. She must not touch any holy thing or go into the sanctuary until completing her days of purification. ⁵ But if she gives birth to a female child, she will be unclean for two weeks as she is during her menstrual impurity. She will continue in purification from her bleeding for 66 days.
  
  ⁶ “When her days of purification are complete, whether for a son or daughter, she is to bring to the priest at the entrance to the tent of meeting a year-old male lamb for a burnt offering, and a young pigeon or a turtledove for a sin[a] offering. ⁷ He will present them before the Lord and make atonement on her behalf; she will be clean from her discharge of blood. This is the law for a woman giving birth, whether to a male or female. ⁸ But if she doesn’t have sufficient means[b] for a sheep, she may take two turtledoves or two young pigeons, one for a burnt offering and the other for a sin[c] offering. Then the priest will make atonement on her behalf, and she will be clean.”
- the bible records that it was as much as two years since the Wise men reached Jerusalem to worship the one born King of the Jews, and then Joseph fled to Egypt and then came back after Herod's death.
  Matthew 2 - HCSB
  Wise Men Seek the King
  
  ¹ After Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judea in the days of King Herod, wise men from the east arrived unexpectedly in Jerusalem, ² saying, “Where is He who has been born King of the Jews? For we saw His star in the east[a] and have come to worship Him.”[b] ³ When King Herod heard this, he was deeply disturbed, and all Jerusalem with him. ⁴ So he assembled all the chief priests and scribes of the people and asked them where the Messiah would be born. ⁵ “In Bethlehem of Judea,” they told him, “because this is what was written by the prophet:
  
  ⁶ And you, Bethlehem, in the land of Judah,
  are by no means least among the leaders of Judah:
  because out of you will come a leader
  who will shepherd My people Israel.”[c]
  
  ⁷ Then Herod secretly summoned the wise men and asked them the exact time the star appeared. ⁸ He sent them to Bethlehem and said, “Go and search carefully for the child. When you find Him, report back to me so that I too can go and worship Him.”[d]
  
  ⁹ After hearing the king, they went on their way. And there it was—the star they had seen in the east![e] It led them until it came and stopped above the place where the child was. ¹⁰ When they saw the star, they were overjoyed beyond measure. ¹¹ Entering the house, they saw the child with Mary His mother, and falling to their knees, they worshiped Him.[f] Then they opened their treasures and presented Him with gifts: gold, frankincense, and myrrh. ¹² And being warned in a dream not to go back to Herod, they returned to their own country by another route.
  
  The Flight into Egypt
  
  ¹³ After they were gone, an angel of the Lord suddenly appeared to Joseph in a dream, saying, “Get up! Take the child and His mother, flee to Egypt, and stay there until I tell you. For Herod is about to search for the child to destroy Him.” ¹⁴ So he got up, took the child and His mother during the night, and escaped to Egypt. ¹⁵ He stayed there until Herod’s death, so that what was spoken by the Lord through the prophet might be fulfilled: Out of Egypt I called My Son.[g]
  
  The Massacre of the Innocents
  
  ¹⁶ Then Herod, when he saw that he had been outwitted by the wise men, flew into a rage. He gave orders to massacre all the male children in and around Bethlehem who were two years[h] old and under, in keeping with the time he had learned from the wise men. ¹⁷ Then what was spoken through Jeremiah the prophet was fulfilled:
  
  ¹⁸ A voice was heard in Ramah,
  weeping,[i] and great mourning,
  Rachel weeping for her children;
  and she refused to be consoled,
  because they were no more.[j]
  
  The Holy Family in Nazareth
  
  ¹⁹ After Herod died, an angel of the Lord suddenly appeared in a dream to Joseph in Egypt, ²⁰ saying, “Get up! Take the child and His mother and go to the land of Israel, because those who sought the child’s life are dead.” ²¹ So he got up, took the child and His mother, and entered the land of Israel. ²² But when he heard that Archelaus[k] was ruling over Judea in place of his father Herod, he was afraid to go there. And being warned in a dream, he withdrew to the region of Galilee. ²³ Then he went and settled in a town called Nazareth to fulfill what was spoken through the prophets, that He will be called a Nazarene.
  Micah 5:2 - HCSB
  [a]Bethlehem Ephrathah,
  you are small among the clans of Judah;
  One will come from you
  to be ruler over Israel for Me.
  His origin[b] is from antiquity,
  from eternity.[c]
  
  Hosea 11:1 - HCSB
  When Israel was a child, thhen i loved him, and called my son out of Egypt.
  
  Jeremiah 31:15 - HCSB
  Thus saith the Lord; a voice was heard in Ramah, lamentation, and bitter weeping; Rahel weeping for her children refusted to be comforted for her children, because they were not.
  
  Magi - Herodotus 1:;101
  
  Rab-Mag, Chief of the Magi in Nebuchadnezzar's court - Jer 39:3,13 - A hereditary priesthood among the medes
  Daniel's title - Dan 4:9; 5:11 - Given by Darius
  
  Dream interpretation was their skill, not astrology Herodotus I.107, 120; VII.19
  
  esablished as state religion of Persia by Darius the Great, after some Magi who were considered to be experts in dream interpretation has been attached to the Median Court
  
  they were the king makers, and magistrates. that is where we get the word Magi, from Magistrates
  
  they were not originally followers of Zoroaster - Encyclopedia Britannica 7:691
  
  Magian Religion vs Judiasm
  
  One Monotheistic author of all good
  
  opposed by a malevolent evil spirit
  
  hereditary priesthood - essential mediator between God and Man by virtue of a blood sacrifice
  
  each depended on divination from their priesthood
  
  each held concepts of clean and unclean forms of life
  
  Magi were the priestly caste during Seleucid, Parthian, and Sasanian periods
  
  synergy between persia and israel, many of the persian kings were of jewish blood. Interesting because this is Iran today and Iran for the last 50 years has been wanting to wipe out Israel since it became a nation.
  
  Since the days of Daniel, the fortunes of both the Peria and Jewish nations have been closely intertwined
  
  Both nations had in their turn falling under Seleucdid domination in the wake of Alexander's conquests
  
  Both regained independance, jews under Maccabean leadership and persons as the dominating ruling group within the Parthian empire. This was an opposing force to the Roman empire at the time of the visit of the Magi. The magi's dual priestly and governmental offices composed the upper house of the council of the Megistanes (magistrates) whose duties included the absolute choice and election of the king of the realm
  
  there is an inscription that has the same role as the rosetta stone. It is the Inscription of Behistun
  
  done by Darius I (the great) 522-486 BC
  
  in 3 languages: Elamite, Akkadian/Babylonian, Old Persian/Aramaic
  
  speaks of his speedy and final triumph over a revolt of the Magi in 522 BC
  
  The partian empire -- Parthia, ancient empire of Asia, in what is now Iran and Afghanistan
  
  the Parthians wer Scythian descen, and adopted Median dress and Aryan speech
  
  they were subject successively to the Assyrians, Medes, Persians, and Macedonians under Alexander the Great and then the Seleucids
  
  about 250 BC, they succeeded in founding an independent kingdom
  
  During 1 BC, grew inot an empire extending from the Euphrates River to the Indus River and from the Oxus (now Amu Darya) River to the Indian Ocean
  
  Judea is a buffer zone between these two rivals: Rome and Parthia
  
  Pompey, the first roman conqueror of Jerusalem, in 63 BC, attacked the Armenian outpost of Parthia
  
  in 55 BC, Crassus led roman legions in sacking Jerusalem and in a subsequent attach on Parthia proper. Romans defeated in batth of carrhae with 30,000 troops lost including their commander.
  
  the partians counterattacked with a token invasion of Armenia, Syria, and Palestine
  
  The father of Herod, Antipater, reestablished some roman rule over Judea, but he retreated before a parthian invasion in 40 BC
  
  Mark Anthony re-established roman sovereingty in 37 BC, but also lost when trying to then go against Parthian
  
  after that retreat, parthians invaded and swept all roman opposition completely out of Palestine (including Herod, who fled to alexandria and then to rome)
  '
  the Roman empire called Herod king of the jews, but for 3 years, he couldn't even go to Judea
  
  with Parthian collaboration jewish sovereignty was restored and jerusalem was foretified with a jewish garrison
  
  by this time, Jerod received the title King of the Jews by Augustus Caesar
  
  herod was not jewish, he was an edomite
  
  Augustus was aged and the military commander, Tiberias, retired. so there was no commander
  
  Armenia was pro-parthians was a revolt against rome was building up (which was successfullyaccomplished within 2years
  
  at the time of christ, herod might have been close to his final illness
  
  Partia had internal dissension: Phraates IV, unpopular and aging king, Magi probably preparing for his successor
  
  the magi come with full military calvary, not 3 men on a camel
  
  Pattern is Prophetic examples:
  
  ex 4:22 - israel nationally spoken of as god's son - Jer 31:9; rom 9:4-5
  
  all thru isaiah, the thought shiftw between the nation and the messiah
  
  isa 41:8 - abrham the friend of god, israel spoken of as if the nation was an individual, here Israel my servant
  
  Isa 42:1-4; isa 52:13; thru isa 53
  
  rabbi yitshak kaduri - one of the most prominent ultra orthodox rabbis in israel - died at 108 in Feb 2006, over 200,000 attended his funeral. a few months before he died, he wrote a small note - requested it to be seals for a year after hid death. He was a kabbalist. if you take the first letter of each work, it spells out Yehoshua or Yeshua
  
  Kaduri had a "website??" with these principals:
  
  the spirit of the messiah is the spirit of prophesy (rev 19:10
  
  a person is conceived by the messiah and contains the spirit of messiah when he meets the messiah (the new birth)
  
  true believers in messiah will draw others to the testimony of messiah and will be called great in the kingdom of heaven - Matt 5:19
  
  the two messiahs
  
  Messiah son of joseph
  
  Messiah son of david
  
  kaduri says the two of them are the same

Proposed Year	Supporting Evidence	Academic Status
4 BCE	Aligns with historical notes from Emil Schürer regarding a lunar eclipse preceding Passover.	Majority view among modern secular historians.
1 BCE / 1 CE	Corresponds perfectly to an eclipse on December 29 (1 BCE), placing Shevat 2 exactly 16 days later on January 14, 1 CE.	Minority view favored by specific chronological researchers.

The messianic promise - 19:47

this is how God works.. itsn't it amazing that Chuck missler begins talking about the messianic prophesy at 1947? turning point of Post-WW2 into Cold War the separating of India, Roswell. These things led into the Creation of Israel in 1948, Mahatma Gandi's assassination, Apartheid began in South Africa.